Masters First-Round Leader Picks And Predictions: Fitzpatrick, Lee Great Value Plays At Augusta

Masters champions are won in those grasping last shots of the competition - however they can be lost as early as Thursday morning.


A tremendous 11 of the previous 16 Masters champs sat inside the leading 5 after Round 1, and can we really be all that shocked? You need to bank those Thursday birdies while you can, as things get significantly more daunting over the final 54 holes.


Here's a take a look at my first-round leader Masters picks, where I avoid the chalkiest uses the board in favor of three gamers who have prospered early in 2026 events and have the abilities to grow at the tamer Thursday edition of Augusta National.


Masters first-round leader picks


Matt Fitzpatrick, 0.25 units (+2800 at BetMGM).
Min Woo Lee, 0.25 systems (+4000 at BetMGM).
Russell Henley, 0.1 units (+5000 at BetMGM)


Picks were made on 4-8 at 7 a.m. ET.


Masters first-round leader predictions


FRL choice: Matt Fitzpatrick (0.25 units).
+2800 at BetMGM


Granted, Fitzpatrick will nearly certainly require to much better his all-time greatest round (67) to cash this play. But he's already among Augusta's a lot of constant recent entertainers with 10 made cuts in 11 starts, and is coming off an absolute March heating unit in which he placed second at THE PLAYERS Championship and won the Valspar Championship in back-to-back weeks.


Fitzpatrick ranks inside the top 7 in SG: Total, GIR rate, and birdie average this season, with maybe the strongest current form of any player in the field. And he ranks ninth in Round 1 Scoring Average, so he's no complete stranger to early birdie opportunities. I more than happy to take him where he's priced, and strongly believe he's the best "top-tier" FRL choice on the board.


FRL pick: Min Woo Lee (0.25 units).
+4000 at BetMGM


Lee's cumulative 5-over showing in 4 opening rounds at Augusta does not instil me with much confidence, but his play in 2026 sure does. Lee gets in the week ranked 5th in SG: Total on the strength of a terrific all-around video game that extends from the driver (13th in range) to the putter (28th in strokes gained).


Lee has actually parlayed his early-season success into the tour's No. 2 ranking in birdie or much better portion, and that's a form-reliant pattern I more than happy to purchase this rate. Take the sample with a grain of salt, but Lee's 68.29 Round 1 scoring average (fifth-best in 2026) is clearly well-earned and makes him an excellent value play for FRL honors.


FRL choice: Russell Henley (0.1 systems).
+5000 at BetMGM


We will not discuss last year.


Disregard that opening-round 79 Henley spat out in 2025 and focus on the truth that the Georgia native has six top-40 finishes in his last 7 visits to Augusta. And the Masters hasn't been nearly as "bomber-friendly" recently, so Henley's drawback off the tee (142nd in distance) is less of an element.


Henley's putting has been superb (18th in SG), and he's the sixth-most precise motorist on tour in 2026. Those will play well here. Include his No. 13 ranking in Round 1 scoring average, and you might definitely do worse in this odds vary. I'm more skittish about investing a quarter unit (so I'm not), however Henley has been consistent enough in the things that matter to necessitate a lottery play.