Oilers Slightly Favored Over Panthers In Stanley Cup Final Rematch

LAS VEGAS (AP) - The Stanley Cup Final is so close to being a tossup, Florida would likely be preferred if the Panthers had home-ice advantage.


But that edge belongs to Edmonton, which mostly discusses why the Oilers are small favorites to win the series, which begins Wednesday.


"However you wish to take a look at this pie, you could make an argument that either group could be preferred," Caesars Sportsbook head of hockey Karry Shreeve stated. "Home ice is absolutely playing a part. You're just playing the percentages. The group that wins Game 1 of the Stanley Cup, they go on to win roughly 75% of the time."


BetMGM Sportsbook notes the Oilers as -130 favorites to win Game 1 and take that crucial 1-0 series lead. The sportsbook makes Edmonton as the -125 favorite to become the very first Canadian group because Montreal in 1993 to hoist the Stanley Cup.


Defending champion Florida, which beat Edmonton in seven video games last year, is the +105 underdog.


BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini stated about 55% of the money has actually come in on the Oilers.


Edmonton Oilers' Connor McDavid (97) speaks to media throughout a news conference, Tuesday, June 3, 2025, in Edmonton, Alberta, ahead of Game 1 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup final series against the Florida Panthers. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press by means of AP)


"I would expect that to probably continue," Cipollini stated. "I believe we'll most likely take a little bit more Oilers money even if of Connor McDavid, however this is a rematch. Florida won in 2015, so I think we will wind up getting an even projection."


Hockey handicapper Alex B. Smith, who co-hosts The Ice Guys podcast, does not buy the Oilers must be .


"You don't see rematches too frequently in the Cup Final," Smith said. "When you do, you constantly ask yourself the obvious concern: Are these 2 teams much better or worse than they were in 2015? I 'd state Florida is a much better variation of themselves from in 2015. Edmonton (is) slightly worse than last year, especially when you take a look at no Zach Hyman available for this series. Connor Brown is returning for Game 1, however how healthy is he going to be?


"I provide the edges to Florida based off of they've been playing much better, sound defense. I believe they're a tighter team than they were last year."


Edmonton's captain became the 2nd skater and sixth gamer to be granted the Conn Smythe Trophy as the playoffs MVP last season while using the losing team.


McDavid leads this postseason in scoring with 26 points, one ahead of colleague Leon Draisaitl, and is the +100 favorite at BetMGM to win the Conn Smythe, offering him an opportunity to make more history even if the Panthers win.


"Are they really going to provide McDavid back-to-back Conn Smythes in losing efforts?" Cipollini asked. "He is the preferred due to the fact that of the points scored and there's currently a precedent that they might offer it to him here, but that's something to enjoy as the video games get going. If there is a Florida gamer that isn't actually standing apart ... there is a real life where it could be him once again in a losing effort."


Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner has actually long been seen as a weakness on the lineup, a reputation that seemed sealed when he was benched two video games into the playoffs.


But Skinner is a major reason Edmonton is still playing. He has permitted one or no goals in five of his previous 7 starts, three of them nothings.


Another excellent run in the net might put Skinner, noted +3500 at BetMGM, in position to win the Conn Smythe.


"I would not have informed you this was sustainable previously," Smith said of Skinner's hot play. "Now, with one series left, it definitely is sustainable."


Florida is making its third successive look in the Stanley Cup Final, another deep run in which tiredness could lastly catch up to the Panthers. Or they might just be on a heating system having actually won 10 of their previous 11 playoff series.


Shreeve said the metrics point to a Panthers championship and though either result would be fine with Caesars, a Florida triumph would be much better.


"I put on ´ t hate where we ´ re at with this one," Shreeve stated. "In 2015 was a little bit harder since more people liked Florida, however people are everything about Edmonton this postseason, which I like."


Because this series obviously could go in either case and Oklahoma City is greatly preferred over Indiana in the NBA Finals, that could increase betting interest in the Stanley Cup Final.


"I believe it assists the NBA is getting the less sexier matchup," Shreeve stated. "The more bettable series is going to be Edmonton-Florida. If things remain tight, it has a chance to go 6 or 7 video games, which would assist."


AP NHL playoffs: https://apnews.com/hub/stanley-cup and https://apnews.com/hub/nhl


Edmonton Oilers' Leon Draisaitl (29) and Connor McDavid (97) participate in practice, Tuesday, June 3, 2025, in Edmonton, Alberta, ahead of Game 1 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup last series against the Florida Panthers. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press through AP)


FILE - Florida Panthers forward Aleksander Barkov raises the Stanley Cup after defeating the Edmonton Oilers in Game 7 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup Final, Monday, June 24, 2024, in Sunrise, Fla. (Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press by means of AP, File)